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Data Driven, or Foolish?
Investment December 13, 2021/Investment Data doesn’t lie. But does it tell the truth? The current fixation on data analytics suggests that data is the only basis for sound decision-making. To succeed, we should rid ourselves of human bias and depend on cold hard numbers. This is foolish. Data is a tool, not an oracle. It…
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How Do You Measure Good Intentions?
Investment December 13, 2021/Investment Investors care more than ever about the environmental and social impact of companies they invest in. In the big picture, this is progress towards making the world a better place. But when it comes to influencing business decisions, we should be careful about good intentions leading the economy astray. There…
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Panic is More Contagious than Coronavirus
Leadership December 13, 2021/Leadership Fear of coronavirus has been increasing in recent weeks. It’s undeniably tragic for those impacted in China, and scary for those of us living elsewhere in the world. Many friends and family who live far from China are concerned. Here in Chicago, I’ve heard talk of keeping kids inside, or…
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Does Secular Stagnation Matter?
Financial December 13, 2021/Financial Sometimes investors ask me whether secular stagnation is bad for Alliance’s investments. In short, the answer is no. The longer answer is that secular stagnation is a macro trend where global economic growth projects to slow down and interest rates will drop to the point where they may even become…
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Lessons from Prohibition
Leadership December 13, 2021/Leadership I noticed in the news last week, that it was the 100 year anniversary of prohibition. This giant policy blunder got me thinking again about the idea of unintended consequences. As a business leader, I make dozens of decisions every day. Whether it’s related to making an investment, team leadership,…
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Follow the Growth
Investment December 13, 2021/Investment Supply-and-Demand is a key factor in real estate investing. When we look at Supply, we ask ourselves: How much developed land is there, how is it zoned, and how is this projected to change over time? When we look at Demand: we ask ourselves: How many people are in the…
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Reassessing What Should be a Goal for Business Leaders in 2020
Leadership December 13, 2021/Leadership Making New Year’s resolutions is easy. Keeping them is hard. I believe this is especially true for business owners and managers. It’s hard to be a good leader. Early January brings out a lot of zeal as many look to implement their new goals. I’ve seen a lot of this…
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How Well Do You Incorporate Probabilities?
Investment December 13, 2021/Investment Most people are really bad at thinking clearly and rationally about (uncertain) future events. No surprise – our brains evolved to make snap judgements in very uncertain and potentially very deadly environments. Making carefully calibrated decisions based on large amounts of data isn’t easy, or natural for most people. Financial…
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Grateful for 2019, and Excited for 2020
Leadership December 13, 2021/Leadership Just because the calendar year is turning, doesn’t mean people want to read some “humble brag”, curated email about how grateful we all are. I’m usually not a fan either. But I do have a lot to be grateful for, and as I reflect on 2019 and what’s ahead in…
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Business Schools are Ripe for Disruption
Lifestyle December 13, 2021/Lifestyle Warren Buffet wisely said that price is what you pay, value is what you get. Are traditional MBA programs really delivering value? The marketplace is finally starting to show some needed skepticism. Business schools basically sell 3 things: professional training, a lifelong network, and personal branding. Together, these elements are supposed…
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Sports Reflect Life
Lifestyle December 8, 2021/Lifestyle I love sports, and not for the usual reasons. While I played as a kid and I still have a few favorite teams, what really keeps me interested is the way athletics highlight our values, our excellence, and our progress. The values behind sports are the same ones that bring success…
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Is Government the Answer to Big Tech?
Technology December 8, 2021/Technology Many people in the media and politics are pushing to punish Big Tech for their various “crimes” and transgressions. There’s a lot of anger in the air, and with so much smoke, I wanted to give my take. People are mad about so many things – tech companies are censoring people…
Read More >>Beware Unintended Consequences
Investment December 8, 2021/Investment People often forget that the world is complex, and outcomes are hard to predict. Simple explanations for cause-and-effect can be tools in helping us understand the world. But very often decisions made without a sense of the deeper nuance lead to serious unintended consequences. I was thinking about this recently when…
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Look the Part
Leadership December 8, 2021/Leadership After a few decades in business, I can make this observation with confidence: how we present ourselves to the world matters, a lot. Presence, presentation, and how a person carries themselves is as important as competence for predicting who will rise in their careers and who will stagnate. Since most…
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Moral Hazard in the Housing Market
Investment December 8, 2021/Investment I love sports, and not for the usual reasons. While I played as a kid and I still have a few favorite teams, what really keeps me interested is the way athletics highlight our values, our excellence, and our progress. The values behind sports are the same ones that bring success…
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